Op-Ed: The NUP Conundrum as predicted two years ago

National Unity Platform (NUP) President Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine and his deputy Hon Mathias Mpuuga on a political drive recently (Photo/File)

By Frank Mulekwa

Two years ago, I wrote an article predicting this NUP conundrum. I intimated that one of the many reasons the opposition’s center does not hold but usually fall apart was lack of discipline and respect for its leadership.
I am still perusing my files so as to reproduce that article.

The opposition has no respect at all for its leaders. This is why NRM has an edge over them because it respects its leaders. The NRM has gone through similar storms, but because of its indomitable stewardship under Mzee Museveni, it has managed to absorb the shocks and navigate through storms without any difficulty.

You all recall the unprecedented 
pressure and storm which was raised by the Go Forward wave caused by the then powerful insiders. The earthquake tremors were felt far and wide. The naysayers were actually referring to it as a tsunami and predicting disintegration.

If Museveni had not been on top of the situation, it would have culminated in a palace coup like that of Zimbabwe’s Mugabe.

The current cracks in NUP bring a feeling of dejavu, they may not readily take it but are a symptom of a bigger problem within its body politik. It is a clear signal that its centre cannot hold any more and might fall apart anytime.

FDC had similar cracks which culminated in emergence of new political parties-cum-factions and shades of opinion. At first it was the small fish like Beti Kamya, later it spread to Gen. Muntu. The cracks eventually widened and took Besigye himself with his Katonga faction. Today FDC is no more but just in name.

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Likewise, it may be Mpuga today but NUP strength has now been tested. Weaknesses have started to show, next it will be Lubongoya or Nyanzi or any one else closer to the NUP principal, given Bobi Wine’s current strength.

By and large, indiscipline remains a scourge, if not, an epidemic bedeviling the opposition.

This is one of the reasons why some of us still maintain that retaining M7 for some more time to build a stronger foundation of the NRM for the future generations to thrive comfortably is the best option.

I am not a prophet of doom but the writing is on the wall for all to see. The world is not ending tomorrow, there is no need to rush and plunge this country into chaotic political doldrums. It’s is thus prudent to think through the transition in a more measured manner with M7 at its helm. Otherwise, posterity will never forgive us.

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The writer is a socio-political commentator

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