Demystifying the July 23rd peaceful march to Parliament amid rising political tensions

By Wabusimba Amiri

Uganda’s current political and social landscape is complex and fraught with numerous challenges, including prolonged military rule, suppression of freedom of speech, high unemployment, human rights abuses, inadequate infrastructure, rampant abductions and corruption, and subpar health and education systems. As the public prepares to march to parliament on 23^rd July, it is crucial to reflect on past protests and consider the potential consequences.

Uganda has a history of protests that often end in tragedy. In 2021, following the arrest of opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, AKA Bobi Wine, over 50 people were killed in Kampala, and many remain imprisoned without clear charges. The government’s heavy-handed response included live ammunition and widespread arrests, creating an atmosphere of fear and repression.

This is not a new pattern. In 2015, protests against the amendment of the Public Order Management Act, which restricted public gatherings, led to brutal crackdowns. The 2011 Walk to Work protests against rising fuel prices were met with tear gas and live bullets, resulting in deaths and injuries.

Similarly, the 2005 protests against the removal of presidential term limits saw excessive force used to quell dissent. This historical context underscores the severe risks associated with protesting in Uganda today.

President Museveni’s government, in power since 1986, has been accused of election rigging and maintaining power through force. The late General Elly Tumwine’s statement as security minister about the state’s readiness to use lethal force against protesters highlights the dangers of protesting under the current regime. While politicians call for peaceful demonstrations, it is often the common youth who face imprisonment or death, while leaders receive police escorts to their homes.

Uganda is not alone in being governed by a military leader. Other African countries with military or ex-military presidents, such as Egypt, Zimbabwe, and Sudan, face similar challenges. In Egypt, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rule since 2014 has seen protests met with brutal crackdowns, resulting in numerous deaths and mass incarcerations.

In 2019, over 3,000 people were arrested following protests against government corruption and economic hardship. Similarly, Zimbabwe’s military-led government has responded to protests with violence. Following protests over fuel price hikes in January 2019, at least 12 people were killed, and more than 600 were arrested.

Sudan’s transition from military to civilian rule was also marred by violence, with security forces attacking a peaceful sit-in in June 2019, killing over 100 protesters and injuring hundreds. These examples illustrate the high risks associated with protesting in countries governed by military regimes.

The situation in Uganda is further complicated by the government’s control over security forces, often used to suppress dissent. Recent arrests of opposition members and activists, the use of live ammunition against protesters, and pervasive surveillance of citizens contribute to an environment where protests can quickly turn deadly.

In contrast, Kenya’s recent protests, led by Generation Z, resulted in the revocation of a financial bill by President Uhuru Kenyatta, partly due to Kenya’s civilian leadership, which tends to handle such matters differently than a military regime. The Kenyan government’s response to protests has generally been less severe, allowing for a more open and democratic process. In Uganda, a military president is likely to respond to protests with greater force, making the likelihood of achieving change through protest less certain.

The upcoming 2026 general elections present an opportunity for Ugandans to express their dissatisfaction through the ballot box. Despite concerns about vote rigging, a significant and unified turnout can still impact results. The 2021 elections demonstrated this, with many NRM MPs being voted out in the central region and other parts of the country. This suggests that even in a repressive environment, electoral participation can bring about change.

Leveraging online platforms to expose corruption has proven effective. This strategy can be expanded to reach local communities through alternative methods, ensuring that the message of accountability and change reaches even those without digital access. Social media campaigns, radio programs, and community meetings can be used to disseminate information and mobilize support.

Investing in civic education to inform citizens about their rights and the importance of voting can create a more informed and engaged electorate. Civic education programs can be integrated into schools, community centres, and local media to reach a broad audience. Avoiding opportunistic politicians who may exploit protests for personal gain is crucial. Genuine civic movements should focus on long-term strategies for change rather than short-term, potentially violent protests. Building alliances with civil society organizations, human rights groups, and international partners can strengthen these movements and increase their impact.

While protests can be a powerful tool for change, the historical and current context of Uganda suggests they may lead to significant risks and limited success under the current regime. Instead, focusing on peaceful, strategic alternatives such as voter education, leveraging digital platforms, and preparing for the 2026 general elections may provide a more sustainable path to achieving the desired political and social changes in Uganda.

As Ugandans, we must weigh the costs and benefits of our actions carefully. Our history shows that violence and repression often follow protests. Therefore, we must explore other avenues to express our dissatisfaction and demand change. By doing so, we can work towards a future where our voices are heard, and our country can progress towards democracy and justice without the loss of lives.

The writer is a diplomatic student, journalist and a human rights activist