Uganda After the Vote: Opportunities, expectations in Museveni’s New Term

By Waiswa Michael Baluye

President Yoweri Museveni has been re-elected as Uganda’s president for a seventh term, extending his rule that began in 1986 and making him one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders. This re-election will shape Uganda’s future across political, economic, social, and international dimensions.

Here is a clear breakdown of the most likely ways his continued leadership could develop or affect Uganda over the next years:

1. Political Landscape and Governance

Extended incumbency: Museveni’s victory extends his rule into its fifth decade, consolidating the political dominance of his party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM). This continuation can mean stability for allies within government and for institutions that have operated under his leadership for decades.

Democratic institutions and opposition space: Critics and analysts warn that democratic spaces may remain constrained despite all electoral institutions being in place. Opposition leaders have raised concerns over voting technology and alleged irregularities. They argue that such concerns could erode confidence in electoral and civic freedoms.

Civil liberties and youth engagement: Young Ugandans, who make up the majority of the population, continue to face challenges such as unemployment and limited political voice. Without broader reforms and expanded opportunities, tension between government and youth populations could grow, particularly if economic prospects do not improve.

2. Economic Development Prospects

Government’s economic vision: President Museveni has outlined ambitious economic goals, including transforming Uganda’s economy and leveraging resource development such as oil production and large-scale infrastructure projects. Investments are expected in railways, power generation, roads, and education.

The government also continues to implement programs such as the Parish Development Model (PDM), aimed at boosting income generation at the grassroots level and integrating more households into the money economy.

Growth versus structural challenges: Uganda’s economy has significant growth potential, especially with oil revenues and expanding regional trade. However, it still faces persistent challenges, including youth unemployment, poverty, and reliance on external financing. Achieving high-value industrialization will require deeper structural reforms, stronger institutions, and sustained private sector growth.

Foreign investment and partnerships: Engagement with global partners, including China, Gulf states, and regional neighbours, is likely to continue, particularly around infrastructure, energy, and trade corridors. At the same time, concerns around debt sustainability and investor confidence will remain central to Uganda’s economic trajectory.

3. Peace, Stability and Social Cohesion

Peace and security narrative: One of President Museveni’s consistent messages has been that his leadership guarantees relative stability in a region historically marked by conflict. This narrative resonates with businesses and citizens who prioritise order and continuity.

Potential for unrest: However, if segments of the population feel excluded from political participation or economic gains, there is potential for protest and social unrest, particularly among young and urban communities. Managing expectations and ensuring inclusive growth will be crucial in maintaining cohesion.

4. International Relations

Regional and continental ties: Many African leaders and institutions have congratulated Museveni on his re-election, signalling continued diplomatic engagement on the continent. Uganda plays a strategic role in East Africa’s politics and economics, especially in trade, transport corridors, and regional peacekeeping missions.

Western engagement and governance concerns: Western governments may continue to raise concerns about governance and democratic standards. Such concerns could influence aid flows, trade preferences, and diplomatic posture. At the same time, Uganda’s geopolitical importance in regional security and economic integration will shape how external partners engage with the country.

As Uganda enters another five-year term under President Museveni, the direction taken will depend not only on state policy but also on how effectively government institutions, the private sector, and citizens respond to evolving economic and social demands. The next term will test whether continuity translates into deeper transformation, broader inclusion, and sustainable development for all Ugandans.

The author is Waiswa Michael Baluye, ONC Coordinator for Buyende District.