Every indicator points to NRM Landslide Victory in 2026

By Ocama Ongwech Alli Abba

There are trending views suggesting that President Museveni will win the 2026–2031 elections by a thin majority. Contrary to this belief, I strongly predict a landslide victory. Why? The entire “opportunistic opposition” is fighting over the same constituencies—the “opposition strongholds.”

This infighting, which they know cannot bear fruit without united fronts, persists because many in the opposition are content with the perks of being symbolic “scarecrows” or “barking dogs,” ready to settle for crumbs falling off the table such as control of the Office of the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament. They feign being principled and dedicated liberators, yet their actions reveal otherwise.

In northern Uganda, it’s likely that Mao or Akena will contest, which will significantly cut into the opposition vote in Lango, Acholi, and parts of West Nile. Should Mao contest in Acholi, opposition votes will be further split.

In the east, the Nathan Nandala Mafabi–Amuriat (POA) alliance will also claim a significant share of opposition votes in the Bagisu and Teso subregions. In central Uganda, there will be fierce competition between Mathias Mpuga and the Democratic Party (DP) against Bobi Wine’s NUP for dominance in the region. This infighting will ultimately benefit the NRM.

In western Uganda, Besigye and Mugisha Muntu are likely to emerge as contenders. As a seasoned opposition figure, Besigye’s presence will complicate matters for NUP and other opposition factions. He is likely to secure a significant portion of votes, weakening NUP’s hold even further. This pattern will leave NUP largely isolated to central Uganda and parts of the Bugisu subregion. Even in their former strongholds, the weak candidates they’ve fielded and their disorganization reduce their chances to near zero.

Notably, this infighting among opposition parties will not impact the strong and loyal NRM support base. Instead, the NRM is likely to grow even stronger, benefiting from the fragmented opposition.

This factionalism will lead to a decisive NRM victory with no less than 68% at the presidential level, 85% for Members of Parliament, and 95% for LC5 and LC3 seats. This projection is based on the opposition’s inability to marshal a united front capable of defeating NRM candidates. Speculation is rife that some opposition camps are working covertly for the NRM. This is evidenced by their lack of cohesion despite claiming to share the common objective of changing the government.

The only hope for opposition supporters remains in hollow rhetoric about “removing the dictator”—a slogan that has lost its impact. Unlike South Africa’s radical left-wing and centre-left political forces, such as the EFF, NUP under Bobi Wine has failed to meet the expectations of opposition supporters.

Frequent foreign trips marked by lavish parties and alleged associations with controversial groups in Europe and the US, under the guise of fighting for freedom, have alienated many Ugandans. Freedom for Ugandans cannot be won in Europe.

Domestically, Bobi Wine’s leadership choices have raised eyebrows. Appointing Mathias Mpuga as the Leader of the Opposition, only to sack him later under reported pressure from European groups over his support for the Anti-Homosexuality Act, has caused further disillusionment. Mpuga was also accused of corruption, including awarding himself 500 million UGX as a “service award,” further undermining NUP’s credibility.

It is an open secret that, with the current state of political division in the opposition and the NRM’s entrenched grassroots support, the opposition stands no chance of defeating the ruling party. Scattered opposition figures in urban areas, with no cohesive strategy or language of liberation, are no match for the NRM.

Every indicator points to a complete NRM victory across all regions, including central Uganda.