2021 ELECTION WATCH: Results of the NATIONAL ELECTORAL SURVEY
Conducted by Market Intelligence Group (MIG) in November 2020 has shocked the nation as it project Bobi Wine with an upper hand to win presidential race if the elections had been held in November last year.
The National electoral poll survey was conducted by a Stratified Random Sampling Methodology with sub-regions, urban, peri-urban and rural settings forming the multiple strata while selection of respondents was random but with a filter of registered voter.
The finding of the survey revealed that 70% of respondents were aged between 18-29 and 30% were aged 30 years and above as per the National Housing and Population Census (NHPC) report from Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) (2014) on our population structure.
Below are the Findings as reported by Market Intelligence Group (MIG)
- Out of 11 presidential candidates nominated at the Independent Electoral Commission, only 8 were listed by respondents leaving out The respondents did not list Willy Mayambala, Fred Mwesigye and Joseph Kabuleta in many of the sub-regions. The nominated candidates were:
- Yoweri Kaguta Tibuhaburwa Museveni
- Nobert Mao
- Kyagulanyi Robert Sentamu
- Mugisha Muntu
- Patrick Oboi Amuriat
- Nancy Rose Kalembe
- Henry Tumukunde
- John Katumba
- Willy Mayambala
- Fred Mwesigye
- Joseph Kabuleta
The results show that Kyagulanyi Robert Sentamu is the leading candidate with the highest score of 59.1% while Tumukunde has the lowest score of 0.2%.
Kyagulanyi also leads his closest challenger (Museveni) by 23.2% while he is ahead of the last candidate (Tumukunde) by 58.9%
Kyagulanyi’s best performance is in Elgon (Bugisu) sub-region, and his worst in Ankole sub-region.
Museveni’s best performance is Ankole sub-region, and his worst in Buganda sub-region.
Amuriat’s best performance is in Teso sub-region and his worst is in Karamoja sub-region.
Katumba’s best performance is in Buganda sub-region and his worst performance is in Acholi sub-region and Ankole sub-region.
Muntu’s best performance is in Kigezi sub-region and Buganda sub-region, and his worst performance is Ankole sub-region.
Kalembe’s best performance is in Busoga sub-region and her worst performance is Kampala sub-region.
Mao’s best performance is in Acholi sub-region and his worst performance is in Tooro sub-region.
Tumukunde’s best performance is in Kampala sub-region and his worst is in Busoga sub-region.
These best and worst results are for where the candidates were listed.
With the exception of Kyagulanyi and Museveni, the 6 other candidates are not listed by voters in 6 sub-regions of Bunyoro, Elgon (Bugisu), Lango, Rwenzururu, Sebei, and West Nile.
This presents the contest as a two horse race between Kyagulanyi and Museveni.
- Kyagulanyi leads in 12 out of the 16 sub regions (namely Buganda, Bukedi, Bunyoro, Busoga, Elgon (Bugisu), Kampala, Karamoja, Kigezi, Lango, , Tooro, Rwenzururu, West Nile) while his closest challenger Museveni leads in 4 out of the 16 sub regions (namely: Acholi, Ankole, Sebei, and Teso).
- Kyagulanyi leads amongst both age categories, i.e. 18-29 and 30+.
- Kyagulanyi leads amongst both gender categories, i.e. male and female.
- 10 out of 16 sub-regions listed unemployment as the most pressing problem for Uganda today and which they want whoever wins the election to address.
West Nile had the highest number of respondents indicating unemployment.
5 out of the 16 sub-regions listed poor roads as the most pressing problem that should be addressed. By poor roads they mean roads within their communities and not the major highways.
1 out of the 16 sub-regions listed poor health facilities as the most pressing problem to be addressed.
-These are not votes, but the result of a survey conducted in November
-Candidates have been on the campaign trail and a lot of work has been done by all of them. The numbers will certain change as a result of candidates’ activities.
Off the data:
For us who think President Museveni is the best president in Ugandan history, and one of the best the African continent has ever had, we believe he should and he will win.
But as a researcher, basing entirely on the data obtained from this survey, I am not underestimating Kyagulanyi. There is something going on with that candidate!