Preliminary poll puts Oulanyah ahead of Kadaga in speakership race

With just a couple of days left before Parliaments elects a speaker, a poll conducted by NBS TV shows that deputy speaker Jacob Oulanyah is ahead of the incumbent Rebecca Kadaga if elections were conducted today.

According to the poll, 44% MPs said they would vote for Oulanyah who has been the deputy speaker for 10 years while 27% said they would go for Kadaga, who has led the House for 10 years. FDC’s Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda trails in third position with 2.3%.

The poll reveals that 14% of the MPs are still waiting for their party position to decide who they would choose while 12% declined to give their opinion of the matter.

This means that the final results could change when the undecided MPs, who total 26%, make up their minds.

At least 513 MPs were interviewed for the poll. The poll was conducted between April and May.

Gender

From the poll, 45% of the male MPs said they would vote Oulanyah while 27% of the males showed their preference for Kadaga implying that more men are more likely to vote for Oulanyah as opposed to Kadaga.

The poll also showed that at least 42% of the female MPs would Oulanyah while 26% would vote Kadaga to be the speaker in the 11th Parliament.

Party position

Based on the party, 52% of the NRM MPs said they would vote Oulanyah while 25% expressed their support for Kadaga.

However 19% of MPs from the National Unity Platform, the leading opposition party said they would cast their vote for Kadaga while 6.3% said they would vote Oulanyah.

Equally, Kadaga is also leading in the Forum for Democratic Change with 45% of the MPs saying they would vote for her compared with 9.4% who said they would go for Oulanyah.

Kadaga also enjoys more support among Independent MPs with 37% of them saying they would vote for her. Oulanyah scored 35% among independents.

Region

The poll shows that in the Central region Oulanyah is leading with 29%. Kadaga came the second with 21% while Nganda scored 4.6%.

In the Eastern region at least 39% said they are more likely to vote for Oulanyah while 35% think Kadaga is a better representative for them. Only 3.7% said they would go for Ssemujju.

Northern region

In the Northern region, 63% of the MPs interviewed said they would vote Oulanyah while 19% would go with Kadaga.

According to the poll findings, Oulanyah is leading in the Western region with 39% while 32% said they would opt for Kadaga.

Deputy speakership race

In the race for the deputy speakership, the poll shows that Bukedea Woman MP Anita Among is leading with 16%. 5% of the MPs said they would vote, Thomas Tayebwa while FDC’s Yusuf Nsibambi is third with 3%,

Jacob Oboth Oboth got 1.2%, David Bahati is at 0.9% and Muhammad Nsereko stands at 0.9%.

The findings further indicated that 35% of the MPs are waiting for the party position while 40% of the MPs declined to give their opinion on whom they think is going to be the deputy speaker of Parliament.

According to the poll, 19% of the male MPs said they would vote Among while 6% would vote for Tayebwa.

9% of the female MPs interviewed think that Among would be a better representative for them whereas 4% would go for Tayebwa.

The election for speaker and the deputy speaker is slated for May 24 at Kololo ceremonial ground following the swearing in of 529 members of Parliament.

Source: NP