Kayunga, Uganda: Former State Minister Idah Erios Nantaba’s stunning defeat in the Kayunga NRM district chairperson race has triggered a political reckoning that could shape the dynamics of the 2026 Woman MP contest in one of Uganda’s most hotly contested districts.
Returning to NRM grassroots elections after a 10-year hiatus, Nantaba, who is the current Woman MP for Kayunga, had hoped to reclaim influence by dethroning her longtime nemesis, Moses Karangwa, but the gamble backfired dramatically.
In the district NRM chairperson polls held May 23rd, Karangwa trounced Nantaba with 415 votes to 38, reaffirming his grip on Kayunga’s party structures and dealing the former minister a political blow that insiders say could damage her 2026 parliamentary prospects.
From Powerbroker to Underdog?
Once commanding over 80% of the vote in Kayunga, Nantaba has for the last two electoral cycles maintained her position as Woman MP running as an independent, after falling out with the NRM in 2015 over what she called “massive irregularities” in the internal elections.
“I am the only one who can defeat Karangwa,” she confidently told supporters during a campaign trail through the district. But the outcome told a different story.
While Karangwa’s camp hailed the victory as a validation of his political leadership, Nantaba dismissed it as a “historical mistake,” accusing the district of “selling itself to thieves.” She alleged that Karangwa manipulated the process by ferrying in voters from Jinja, which he denied.
“The voters have just been driven here in buses, and this is my first time to see them,” Nantaba said on voting day as rain-soaked NRM supporters chanted Karangwa’s name.
Damaged capital ahead of NRM Primaries
Political analysts say the magnitude of Nantaba’s defeat, less than 10% of the vote, could significantly weaken her footing ahead of the NRM parliamentary primaries scheduled for July 16, if she chooses to seek the party flag again.
“You abandoned us, and now you want our votes again,” said Sam Ssebyala, one of several party members who questioned her motives.
Other NRM insiders suggest her bid may have been more symbolic, an attempt to signal reconciliation with the party and regain favor from the top leadership, especially President Museveni, ahead of the 2026 elections.
2026 Woman MP Race: who are the contenders
The Woman MP race in Kayunga is expected to draw familiar faces, among whom include;
1. Jackline Birungi Kobusingye, Karangwa’s daughter, who ran in 2021 and polled just over 10,000 votes, is preparing another attempt.
2. Agatha Nalubwama, the official 2021 NRM flag bearer who placed third, is also expected to return.
3. Harriet Nakwedde of the National Unity Platform (NUP), who nearly flipped the district in the 2021 LC5 race, remains a potent contender.
With multiple pro-NRM candidates likely to split the vote, Nantaba could attempt another independent run. But political watchers say her public credibility and grassroots machinery appear weakened.
“Nantaba’s loss is not just symbolic, it reflects an erosion of her base in a district where she once reigned supreme,” a local political analyst told DailyExpress.
Whether she doubles down for a fourth term or bows out remains to be seen. But the Karangwa camp’s resurgence could redraw the battle lines of Kayunga politics heading into 2026.
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