Wealth on paper, poverty on ground – Inside Uganda’s ecnomy growth paradox

By Muteesa Daniels Mukasa

The current state of Uganda is like a well-dressed athlete with a failing heart, or a man wearing a 5-million UGX suit over 3,000 UGX “budget” dirt underwear. We are dressed in golden attire for the global stage, yet our inner boxers are dirty and cheap. We are rich on screens, poor on the streets.

We are being celebrated globally for macroeconomic stability, yet internally, we acknowledge that the systems meant to serve over 50 million Ugandans are leaking funds and prioritizing the welfare of the elites. In a week when international spreadsheets celebrate Uganda as Africa’s next economic tiger, the view from the streets of Ugandan cities tells a different, more haunting story.

I am talking about the International Monetary Fund’s forecasts—a staggering 7.5% growth rate for 2026. This “trophy economy” remains a hollow victory, as millions of Ugandans watch Shs 46 billion in innovation funds sit idle while their leaders fly abroad for healthcare they have failed to build at home.

It is time to ask myself: who is this growth actually for, and why does a nation “on the rise” feel like a people falling behind? Do we need to boast around with dirty, cheap underwear? Absolutely not. Do we need to parade our progress while our foundation remains substandard and neglected?

The IMF’s prediction of Uganda’s 7.5% growth rate in 2026 should not fool you. These statistics look great on paper, but they mask a painful reality: the deepening hardship that ordinary people face.

Just take a simple look at the funding hypocrisy. While Parliament has recently expressed fury over Shs 46 billion in idle funds at the Ministry of Science, that same body seeks UGX 5 billion for MPs’ medical insurance and emergency treatment abroad. This creates, for me, a disturbing narrative: there is money for the elite’s health, but “dead” money for the nation’s innovation.

You can also observe the macro-growth versus micro-misery, where the IMF warns that global shocks are driving up food and fuel prices, erasing the benefits of the 7.5% growth for the average family. When interest payments on our Shs 96.1 trillion debt take up nearly a third of collected taxes, “growth” feels more like a debt-servicing machine than a tool for poverty reduction.

These circumstances remind me of “The Paper Millionaire’s Empty Pocket” story, involving a friend of mine who was often hailed as a “success story” because his startup was valued at over UGX 500 million, making him a millionaire on paper. Yet, because his wealth was entirely tied up in illiquid stock options he could not sell, his daily reality was far grimmer.

While headlines praised his “net worth,” the rich man lived in a cramped room, frequently skipped meals to afford his server bills, and nervously checked his bank account before every grocery run. He was a rich man who could theoretically buy a mansion but practically struggled to buy a sandwich—embodying the paradox of owning a fortune he could not actually spend.

On paper, we are an African tiger, outpacing nearly every neighbour. In reality, we are a nation where the “fattening bank balances” of the few contrast sharply with the widening trade deficits and rising food prices felt by the many.

The most critical step is moving wealth from “paper” to the “pockets,” including the 75% of Ugandans who depend on agriculture.

To achieve that, Uganda must bridge the productivity gap in agriculture by shifting the 39% of the population still in the subsistence economy into the money economy.

Convert our oil and mineral potential into tangible benefits for the citizenry.
Address high interest rates to provide actual liquidity to local businesses.
Prioritize accountable spending and job creation over administrative bloat.
Reduce the large public administration budget and combat corruption to ensure that taxes are spent on services rather than “paper” administrative structures.

We are excelling at the “macro” level but failing at the “human” level. The so-called 7.5% growth rate must also translate into reliable electricity and accountable spending; otherwise, the IMF’s forecasts will remain a hollow statistic for the millions of Ugandans watching their leaders seek medical care in India while local X-ray rooms remain empty.

We must stop dressing up the golden facade for the world to see while our people suffer in the shadows. We must cease masking our economic reality with superficial successes on the global stage while our fellow citizens continue to endure significant hardship.

Let’s abandon this pretence of global success and confront our true economic state. This is a rot we must confront.