Why Universities Will Determine Uganda’s Tenfold Growth by 2040

By Ainematsiko Allan

“A nation grows when its universities produce solutions, not just graduates.”

Uganda wants to transform its economy from about US$50 billion to US$500 billion by 2040. It is one of the country’s most ambitious development targets since independence, with the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) placing emphasis on industrialisation, value addition, innovation, export growth and a more productive population.

But behind every factory, every innovation, every new technology and every effective policy is one resource that cannot simply be imported or borrowed: human knowledge.

This is why the success or failure of Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy will depend heavily on an institution that often receives less attention than roads, electricity, factories and investment incentives: the university.

Universities do much more than award degrees. They train the scientists who improve agriculture, engineers who design industries, doctors who strengthen public health, lawyers who shape policy, teachers who prepare the next generation and entrepreneurs who create jobs.

If Uganda is serious about transforming its economy, strengthening its universities is not optional. It is a national necessity.

Uganda’s universities have grown with the country

This is not a new lesson. Uganda’s own history demonstrates that national development has moved alongside the growth of higher education.

Uganda’s journey in higher education began in 1922, when Makerere University opened as a small technical school with just 14 students studying carpentry, mechanics and building. Within a few years, it had expanded into medicine, agriculture, veterinary science and teacher training before growing into one of Africa’s most respected universities.

The expansion did not stop with Makerere.

For decades after independence, Uganda had only a handful of institutions offering degree-level education, and university education remained beyond the reach of most citizens. By the late 1980s, the country still had only one public university.

That changed from the 1990s onwards, as government allowed private and religious institutions to open and become accredited. By the early 2000s, the number of universities had grown beyond ten. Today, Uganda has more than 40 chartered and accredited universities, both public and private, spread across the country.

These figures tell a story larger than statistics. They demonstrate Uganda’s transition from treating higher education as a privilege for a few to recognising it as an essential part of national development.

More Ugandans than ever now have an opportunity to participate in the knowledge economy that the Tenfold Growth Strategy envisions.

But numbers alone are not enough. Growing the number of universities only benefits the country if the quality of teaching, research and innovation grows with it.

Uganda’s universities have evolved alongside the country’s own journey, from colonial administration and political instability to today’s ambition of becoming an upper-middle-income economy. As national priorities changed, universities also changed, moving from producing artisans to training researchers, innovators, policymakers and professionals whose work increasingly shapes national development.

Education and development therefore cannot be separated.

The knowledge economy requires more than degrees

The connection between education and development is also reflected in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

SDG 4 emphasises inclusive and quality education because education provides the foundation upon which other forms of development are built. Better education contributes to stronger health systems, higher productivity, innovation and more competitive economies.

That link becomes even clearer when SDG 4 is considered alongside SDG 8, which focuses on decent work and economic growth, and SDG 9, which promotes industry, innovation and infrastructure.

Together, these goals point to a simple reality: a country cannot industrialise sustainably without investing in the people who will drive that industrialisation.

Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy rests on the same principle. It is easy to describe the desired outcomes: increased exports, higher savings, a larger formal economy and more manufacturing. But the spirit of the strategy goes deeper.

Uganda is not merely seeking slightly better economic performance. It is seeking to fundamentally change how the country produces, trains its people and uses its resources.

That transformation cannot simply be purchased or constructed overnight. It must be learned. And that is where universities become indispensable. Their responsibility should not end with handing graduates certificates. Universities must cultivate the thinking, technical skills, research culture and problem-solving abilities required to build a different kind of economy.

Makerere shows what is possible

Makerere University’s Strategic Plan for 2025–2030 provides one example of how this transformation can happen. Rather than concentrating solely on teaching, the university has placed research, innovation, partnerships and societal transformation at the centre of its mission.

Through the Makerere Research and Innovations Fund (Mak-RIF), researchers are developing solutions in agriculture, engineering, health, environmental conservation and digital technology. At the Infectious Diseases Institute, scientists continue to strengthen Africa’s capacity to respond to public health emergencies through research, disease surveillance and innovation.

These initiatives demonstrate what universities can achieve when research is treated not merely as an academic exercise but as an engine of economic and social transformation. The challenge is to ensure that such initiatives are not isolated successes, but become part of a broader national culture in which universities are expected and enabled to solve real problems.

What international exchanges can bring home

International partnerships are another important part of building university capacity.

Makerere University’s exchange agreements with the University of Padova and the University of Perugia in Italy have created opportunities for students and staff to study, teach and conduct research abroad while allowing Italian researchers to collaborate with Ugandan counterparts.

The value of such partnerships, however, should not be measured simply by the number of students who travel abroad. The real value is what comes back.

Students return with new technical skills, exposure to different approaches to problem-solving and relationships with researchers and institutions that can continue long after an exchange programme ends.

Lecturers can return with new teaching approaches and fresh research interests. Over time, these exchanges can contribute to a gradual upgrading of Uganda’s research and academic capacity without the country having to finance every aspect of that development alone. That is an opportunity Uganda should take seriously.

Competence must matter

Yet there is an uncomfortable contradiction that Uganda must confront. The country increasingly expects universities to produce evidence-based solutions, while leadership positions in some public institutions can still be occupied by people without the relevant professional background.

When technical decisions are made without sufficient technical understanding, research can struggle to influence policy. Universities can generate solutions, but those solutions cannot transform society if the people responsible for implementing policy are not equipped to understand or use them.

If Uganda genuinely wants a knowledge-driven economy, competence must increasingly determine who occupies technical and professional leadership positions, rather than convenience or connections.

This does not mean every leader must hold a PhD. It means that people making decisions about health, agriculture, industry, education and other specialised areas should have a meaningful understanding of those fields, or be required to acquire that understanding once appointed. A knowledge economy cannot be built on the sidelines of knowledge.

The road to US$500 billion

Uganda’s journey towards a US$500 billion economy will not be won through infrastructure projects alone. Roads connect markets. Electricity powers industries. Investment creates opportunities. But educated people create the ideas that transform economies.

Every country that has successfully industrialised has had to invest in education, research and innovation. Universities are where much of that knowledge is generated, tested, challenged and transformed into solutions.

Uganda already has a foundation. Its higher education journey stretches back more than a century, while the university system has expanded from a single institution to more than 40 chartered and accredited universities.

What remains is to strengthen that foundation. That means sustained investment in research, stronger partnerships between universities and industry, relevant skills training, better research infrastructure and genuine support for innovation.

It also means changing the way society views universities. They should not be regarded merely as places where young people spend several years before entering the job market. They should be regarded as national development institutions.

A university should be a place where a farmer’s problem becomes a research question, where an industrial challenge becomes an engineering project, where a public health crisis becomes an innovation opportunity and where a policy failure becomes an evidence-based solution. That is how universities become engines of development.

Uganda cannot afford to leave universities behind

The Tenfold Growth Strategy is ultimately about changing the productive capacity of Uganda. Universities are central to that transformation because they produce the people, ideas, research and innovations that determine how effectively the country can use its natural and human resources. If universities remain underfunded, disconnected from industry and insufficiently involved in national policymaking, Uganda’s development ambitions will face a serious constraint. But if universities are empowered to research, innovate, collaborate and solve problems, they can become one of the country’s greatest assets.

The question, therefore, is not whether Uganda needs strong universities. The question is whether Uganda is prepared to treat them as a central pillar of its economic transformation. If the country is serious about achieving tenfold growth by 2040, universities cannot remain on the sidelines.

They must stand at the centre of the development agenda, producing knowledge, shaping policy, driving innovation and preparing the people who will build Uganda’s future. Because nations do not become prosperous by chance. They become prosperous by educating the people who create that prosperity.

The author is a student of Journalism and Communication at Makerere University and a volunteer at the Public Relations Office, Makerere University